[单选题]PASSAGETHREE(1)Couldthebadolddaysofeconomicdeclinebeabouttoreturn?SinceOPECagreedtosupply-cutsinMarch,thepriceofcrudeoilhasjumpedtoalmost10lastDecember.Thisnear-triplingofoilpricescallsupscarymemoriesofthe1973oilshock,whenpricesquadrupled,and1979-1980,whentheyalsoalmosttripled.Bothpreviousshocksresultedindouble-digitinflationandglobaleconomicdecline.Sowherearetheheadlineswarningofgloomanddoomthistime?(2)TheoilpricewasgivenanotherpushupthisweekwhenIraqsuspendedoilexports.Strengtheningeconomicgrowth,atthesametimeaswintergripsthenorthernhemisphere,couldpushthepricehigherstillintheshortterm.(3)Yettherearegoodreasonstoexpecttheeconomicconsequencesnowtobelessseverethaninthe1970s.Inmostcountriesthecostofcrudeoilnowaccountsforasmallershareofthepriceofpetrolthanitdidinthe1970s.InEurope,taxesaccountforuptofour-fifthsoftheretailprice,soevenquitebigchangesinthepriceofcrudehaveamoremutedeffectonpumppricesthaninthepast.(4)Richeconomiesarealsolessdependentonoilthantheywere,andsolesssensitivetoswingsintheoilprice.Energyconservation,ashifttootherfuelsandadeclineintheimportanceofheavy,energy-intensiveindustrieshavereducedoilconsumption.Software,consultancyandmobiletelephonesusefarlessoilthansteelorcarproduction.ForeachdollarofGDP(inconstantprices)richeconomiesnowusenearly50%lessoilthanin1973.TheOECDestimatesinitslatestEconomicOutlookthat,ifoilpricesaveraged13in1998,thiswouldincreasetheoilimportbillinricheconomiesbyonly0.25-0.5%ofGDP.Thatislessthanone-quarteroftheincomelossin1974or1980.Ontheotherhand,oil-importingemergingeconomies—towhichheavyindustryhasshifted—havebecomemoreenergy-intensive,andsocouldbemoreseriouslysqueezed.(5)Onemorereasonnottolosesleepovertheriseinoilpricesisthat,unliketherisesinthe1970s,ithasnotoccurredagainstthebackgroundofgeneralcommodity-priceinflationandglobalexcessdemand.Asizableportionoftheworldisonlyjustemergingfromeconomicdecline.TheEconomist'scommoditypriceindexisbroadlyunchangingfromayearago.In1973commoditypricesjumpedby70%，andin1979byalmost30%.33.TheestimatesinEconomicOutlookshowthatinrichcountries
[单选题]Text3Forhundredsofyears,thecriminallaw(刑法)hasbeenbuiltaroundtheideathatwrongdoersmustbepunishedfortheircrimes.Themostbasicargumentforpunishmentisthatitpreserveslawandorderandrespectsforauthority.Fromthispointofview，punishmentdoestwothings.Itupholdsthelaw，anditpreventsothersfromthinkingtheycangetawaywithdoingthesamethingwithoutpunishment.Punishmentisbasedontheideathatmanypeoplehaveabarelycontrolleddesiretoactinforbiddenways.Oneofthebestwaystoreducecrimeistoreformorrehabilitate(改造)habitualcriminals.Themainproblemisnotthefirstoffenderorthepettythiefbuttherepeatedoffenderwhocommitsincreasinglyseriouscrimes.Accordingtocriminologists，crimewoulddecreasegreatlyifallsuchoffenderscouldbeturnedawayfromwrongdoing.ButU.S.prisonshavehadlittlesuccessinrehabilitatinginmates.Abouttwo-thirdsofthepeoplearrestedinanyyearhaveapreviouscriminalrecord.Rehabilitation(改造)ofcriminalscouldprobablybeimprovedgreatlyifexpertscouldprovidetherightkindofprogramfordifferenttypesofoffenders.Criminalsvarywidelyinthekindsofcrimestheycommit，theiremotionalproblems，andtheirsocialandeconomicbackgrounds.Notalloffenderscanbehelpedbythesametreatment.Manyrequiretheaidofphysicians,psychiatrists,orpsychologists.Othersrespondwelltoeducationalorvocationaltraining.Intheearly1990s,therewereabout1,300,000criminalsinU.S.city,county,state,andfederalcorrectionalinstitutions，andabout500,000morewereoutonparole.Societyspentmorethan$15billiontooperateprisonsandrelatedinstitutionsyearly,butonlyasmallpartofthissumwenttoprovidetreatment.Nearlyallthefundswereusedtofeedandclotheprisonersandtokeepthemundercontrol.Sincethe1ate1970s,however,therehasbeenatrendtowardpunishmentratherthanrehabilitationofoffenders.Prisonsentences(徒刑)arelonger.CapitalpunishmentshavebeenusedmorefrequentlysincetheU.S.SupremeCourtliftedadeathpenaltybanin1976.Nevertheless,crimepreventionshouldaimtopreventpeoplefrombecomingcriminalsinthefirstplace.Suchagoalprobablywouldbenefitfromreformprogramsinurbanslums.Theseprogramswouldincludeimprovedhousing,schools,andrecreationprogramsandincreasedjobopportunities.Therearemanyotherwaystoreducecrime.Peoplecanbeeducatedorpersuadedtotakegreaterprecautionsagainstcrime.Theycanbetaught,forexample,howtoprotecttheirhomesfromburglary.Automobiletheftswoulddropsharplyifdriversremovedtheirkeysandlockedtheircarswhenleavingthem.Betterlightinghelpsdiscouragepurse-snatchingsandotherrobberiesoncitystreetsandinparks.Manyexpertsbelievethatstrictgun-licensinglawswouldgreatlyreducecrime.11.Thebeliefthatpeopletendtobehaveinforbiddenways____.
