在线名词解释大全 - test - 详细

PASSAGETHREE(1)Couldthebadolddaysofeconomicdeclinebeabouttoreturn?SinceOPECagreedtosupply-cutsinMarch,thepriceofcrudeoilhasjumpedtoalmost10lastDecember.Thisnear-triplingofoilpricescallsupscarymemoriesofthe1973oilshock,whenpricesquadrupled,and1979-1980,whentheyalsoalmosttripled.Bothpreviousshocksresultedindouble-digitinflationandglobaleconomicdecline.Sowherearetheheadlineswarningofgloomanddoomthistime?(2)TheoilpricewasgivenanotherpushupthisweekwhenIraqsuspendedoilexports.Strengtheningeconomicgrowth,atthesametimeaswintergripsthenorthernhemisphere,couldpushthepricehigherstillintheshortterm.(3)Yettherearegoodreasonstoexpecttheeconomicconsequencesnowtobelessseverethaninthe1970s.Inmostcountriesthecostofcrudeoilnowaccountsforasmallershareofthepriceofpetrolthanitdidinthe1970s.InEurope,taxesaccountforuptofour-fifthsoftheretailprice,soevenquitebigchangesinthepriceofcrudehaveamoremutedeffectonpumppricesthaninthepast.(4)Richeconomiesarealsolessdependentonoilthantheywere,andsolesssensitivetoswingsintheoilprice.Energyconservation,ashifttootherfuelsandadeclineintheimportanceofheavy,energy-intensiveindustrieshavereducedoilconsumption.Software,consultancyandmobiletelephonesusefarlessoilthansteelorcarproduction.ForeachdollarofGDP(inconstantprices)richeconomiesnowusenearly50%lessoilthanin1973.TheOECDestimatesinitslatestEconomicOutlookthat,ifoilpricesaveraged13in1998,thiswouldincreasetheoilimportbillinricheconomiesbyonly0.25-0.5%ofGDP.Thatislessthanone-quarteroftheincomelossin1974or1980.Ontheotherhand,oil-importingemergingeconomies—towhichheavyindustryhasshifted—havebecomemoreenergy-intensive,andsocouldbemoreseriouslysqueezed.(5)Onemorereasonnottolosesleepovertheriseinoilpricesisthat,unliketherisesinthe1970s,ithasnotoccurredagainstthebackgroundofgeneralcommodity-priceinflationandglobalexcessdemand.Asizableportionoftheworldisonlyjustemergingfromeconomicdecline.TheEconomist'scommoditypriceindexisbroadlyunchangingfromayearago.In1973commoditypricesjumpedby70%,andin1979byalmost30%.33.TheestimatesinEconomicOutlookshowthatinrichcountries

【答案】 D

  【考点】 推断题。

  【分析】 根据本题的关键词“《经济展望》的估计”可以定位到“The OECD estimates in its latest Economic outlook that, if oil prices averaged $22 a barrel for a full year, compared with $13 in 1998, this would increase the oil import bill in rich economies by only 0.25%-0.5% of GDP。”。也就是说,油价的上涨对GDP 的影响很小,只有“0.25%—0.5%”。因此我们可以得出答案[D]。

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