PASSAGEONE(1)Attheageoftwelveyears,thehumanbodyisatitsmostvigorous.Ithasyettoreachitsfullsizeandstrength,anditsownerhisorherfullintelligence;butatthisagethelikelihoodofdeathisleast.Earlier,wewereinfantsandyoungchildren,andconsequentlymorevulnerable;later,weshallundergoaprogressivelossofourvigorandresistancewhich,thoughimperceptibleatfirst,willfinallybecomesosteepthatwecanlivenolonger,howeverwellwelookafterourselves,andhoweverwellsociety,andourdoctors,lookafterus.(2)Thisdeclineinvigorwiththepassingoftimeiscalledageing.Itisoneofthemostunpleasantdiscoverieswhichweallmakethatwemustdeclineinthisway,thatifweescapewars,accidentsanddiseaseweshalleventually"dieofoldage",andthatthishappensataratewhichdifferslittlefrompersontoperson,sothatthereareheavyoddsinfavorofourdyingbetweentheagesofsixty-fiveandeighty.Someofuswilldiesooner,afewwilllivelonger—onintoaninthortenthdecade.Butthechancesareagainstit,andthereisavirtuallimitonhowlongwecanhopetoremainalive,howeverluckyandrobustweare.(3)Normalpeopletendtoforgetthisprocessunlessanduntiltheyareremindedofit.Wearesofamiliarwiththefactthatmanages,thatpeoplehaveforyearsassumedthattheprocessoflosingvigorwithtime,ofbecomingmorelikelytodietheolderweget,wassomethingself-evident,likethecoolingofahotkettleorthewearing-outofapairofshoes.Theyhavealsoassumedthatallanimals,andprobablyotherorganismssuchastrees,oreventheuniverseitself,mustinthenatureofthings"wearout".(4)Mostanimalswecommonlyobservedoinfactageaswedo,ifgiventhechancetolivelongenough;andmechanicalsystemslikeawoundwatch,orthesun,doinfactanoutofenergyinaccordancewiththesecondlawofthermodynamics(热力学)(whetherthewholeuniversedoessoisamootpointatpresent).Butthesearenotanalogoustowhathappenswhenmanages.Arun-downwatchisstillawatchandcanberewound.Anoldwatch,bycontrast,becomessowornandunreliablethatiteventuallyisnotworthmending.Butawatchcouldneverrepairitself—itdoesnotconsistoflivingparts,onlyofmetal,whichwearsawaybyfriction.Wecould,atonetime,repairourselves—wellenough,atleast,toovercomeallbutthemostinstantlyfatalillnessesandaccidents.Betweentwelveandeightyyearswegraduallylosethispower;anillnesswhichattwelvewouldknockusover,ateightycanknockusout,andintoourgrave.Ifwecouldstayasvigorousasweareattwelve,itwouldtakeabout700yearsforhalfofustodie,andanother700forthesurvivorstobereducedbyhalfagain.23.Whatisageing?

PASSAGEONE(1)Attheageoftwelveyears,thehumanbodyisatitsmostvigorous.Ithasyettoreachitsfullsizeandstrength,anditsownerhisorherfullintelligence;butatthisagethelikelihoodofdeathisleast.Earlier,wewereinfantsandyoungchildren,andconsequentlymorevulnerable;later,weshallundergoaprogressivelossofourvigorandresistancewhich,thoughimperceptibleatfirst,willfinallybecomesosteepthatwecanlivenolonger,howeverwellwelookafterourselves,andhoweverwellsociety,andourdoctors,lookafterus.(2)Thisdeclineinvigorwiththepassingoftimeiscalledageing.Itisoneofthemostunpleasantdiscoverieswhichweallmakethatwemustdeclineinthisway,thatifweescapewars,accidentsanddiseaseweshalleventually"dieofoldage",andthatthishappensataratewhichdifferslittlefrompersontoperson,sothatthereareheavyoddsinfavorofourdyingbetweentheagesofsixty-fiveandeighty.Someofuswilldiesooner,afewwilllivelonger—onintoaninthortenthdecade.Butthechancesareagainstit,andthereisavirtuallimitonhowlongwecanhopetoremainalive,howeverluckyandrobustweare.(3)Normalpeopletendtoforgetthisprocessunlessanduntiltheyareremindedofit.Wearesofamiliarwiththefactthatmanages,thatpeoplehaveforyearsassumedthattheprocessoflosingvigorwithtime,ofbecomingmorelikelytodietheolderweget,wassomethingself-evident,likethecoolingofahotkettleorthewearing-outofapairofshoes.Theyhavealsoassumedthatallanimals,andprobablyotherorganismssuchastrees,oreventheuniverseitself,mustinthenatureofthings"wearout".(4)Mostanimalswecommonlyobservedoinfactageaswedo,ifgiventhechancetolivelongenough;andmechanicalsystemslikeawoundwatch,orthesun,doinfactanoutofenergyinaccordancewiththesecondlawofthermodynamics(热力学)(whetherthewholeuniversedoessoisamootpointatpresent).Butthesearenotanalogoustowhathappenswhenmanages.Arun-downwatchisstillawatchandcanberewound.Anoldwatch,bycontrast,becomessowornandunreliablethatiteventuallyisnotworthmending.Butawatchcouldneverrepairitself—itdoesnotconsistoflivingparts,onlyofmetal,whichwearsawaybyfriction.Wecould,atonetime,repairourselves—wellenough,atleast,toovercomeallbutthemostinstantlyfatalillnessesandaccidents.Betweentwelveandeightyyearswegraduallylosethispower;anillnesswhichattwelvewouldknockusover,ateightycanknockusout,andintoourgrave.Ifwecouldstayasvigorousasweareattwelve,itwouldtakeabout700yearsforhalfofustodie,andanother700forthesurvivorstobereducedbyhalfagain.24.Whatdotheexamplesofwatchshow?

PASSAGEONE(1)Attheageoftwelveyears,thehumanbodyisatitsmostvigorous.Ithasyettoreachitsfullsizeandstrength,anditsownerhisorherfullintelligence;butatthisagethelikelihoodofdeathisleast.Earlier,wewereinfantsandyoungchildren,andconsequentlymorevulnerable;later,weshallundergoaprogressivelossofourvigorandresistancewhich,thoughimperceptibleatfirst,willfinallybecomesosteepthatwecanlivenolonger,howeverwellwelookafterourselves,andhoweverwellsociety,andourdoctors,lookafterus.(2)Thisdeclineinvigorwiththepassingoftimeiscalledageing.Itisoneofthemostunpleasantdiscoverieswhichweallmakethatwemustdeclineinthisway,thatifweescapewars,accidentsanddiseaseweshalleventually"dieofoldage",andthatthishappensataratewhichdifferslittlefrompersontoperson,sothatthereareheavyoddsinfavorofourdyingbetweentheagesofsixty-fiveandeighty.Someofuswilldiesooner,afewwilllivelonger—onintoaninthortenthdecade.Butthechancesareagainstit,andthereisavirtuallimitonhowlongwecanhopetoremainalive,howeverluckyandrobustweare.(3)Normalpeopletendtoforgetthisprocessunlessanduntiltheyareremindedofit.Wearesofamiliarwiththefactthatmanages,thatpeoplehaveforyearsassumedthattheprocessoflosingvigorwithtime,ofbecomingmorelikelytodietheolderweget,wassomethingself-evident,likethecoolingofahotkettleorthewearing-outofapairofshoes.Theyhavealsoassumedthatallanimals,andprobablyotherorganismssuchastrees,oreventheuniverseitself,mustinthenatureofthings"wearout".(4)Mostanimalswecommonlyobservedoinfactageaswedo,ifgiventhechancetolivelongenough;andmechanicalsystemslikeawoundwatch,orthesun,doinfactanoutofenergyinaccordancewiththesecondlawofthermodynamics(热力学)(whetherthewholeuniversedoessoisamootpointatpresent).Butthesearenotanalogoustowhathappenswhenmanages.Arun-downwatchisstillawatchandcanberewound.Anoldwatch,bycontrast,becomessowornandunreliablethatiteventuallyisnotworthmending.Butawatchcouldneverrepairitself—itdoesnotconsistoflivingparts,onlyofmetal,whichwearsawaybyfriction.Wecould,atonetime,repairourselves—wellenough,atleast,toovercomeallbutthemostinstantlyfatalillnessesandaccidents.Betweentwelveandeightyyearswegraduallylosethispower;anillnesswhichattwelvewouldknockusover,ateightycanknockusout,andintoourgrave.Ifwecouldstayasvigorousasweareattwelve,itwouldtakeabout700yearsforhalfofustodie,andanother700forthesurvivorstobereducedbyhalfagain.25.Whichofthefollowingbestfitsthestyleofthispassage?

PASSAGETWO(1)Sincethedawnofhumaningenuity,peoplehavedevisedevermorecunningtoolstocopewithworkthatisdangerous,boring,burdensome,orjustplainnasty.Thatcompulsionhasresultedinrobotics—thescienceofconferringvarioushumancapabilitiesonmachines.Andifscientistshaveyettocreatethemechanicalversionofsciencefiction,theyhavebeguntocomeclose.(2)Asaresult,themodernworldisincreasinglypopulatedbyintelligentgizmoswhosepresencewebarelynoticebutwhoseuniversalexistencehasremovedmuchhumanlabor.Ourfactorieshumtotherhythmofrobotassemblyarms.Ourbankingisdoneatautomatedtellerterminalsthatthankuswithmechanicalpolitenessforthetransaction.Oursubwaytrainsarecontrolledbytirelessrobot-drivers.Andthankstothecontinualminiaturizationofelectronicsandmicro-mechanics,therearealreadyrobotsystemsthatcanperformsomekindsofbrainandbonesurgerywithsubmillimeteraccuracy—fargreaterprecisionthanhighlyskilledphysicianscanachievewiththeirhandsalone.(3)Butifrobotsaretoreachthenextstageoflaborsavingutility,theywillhavetooperatewithlesshumansupervisionandbeabletomakeatleastafewdecisionsforthemselves—goalsthatposearealchallenge.“Whileweknowhowtotellarobottohandleaspecificerror,”saysDaveLavery,managerofaroboticsprogramatNASA,“wecan'tyetgivearobotenough‘commonsense’toreliablyinteractwithadynamicworld.”(4)Indeed,thequestfortrueartificialintelligencehasproducedverymixedresults.Despiteaspellofinitialoptimisminthe1960sand1970swhenitappearedthattransistorcircuitsandmicroprocessorsmightbeabletocopytheactionofthehumanbrainbytheyear2010,researcherslatelyhavebeguntoextendthatforecastbydecadesifnotcenturies.(5)Whattheyfound,inattemptingtomodelthought,isthatthehumanbrain'sroughlyonehundredbillionnervecellsaremuchmoretalented—andhumanperceptionfarmorecomplicated—thanpreviouslyimagined.Theyhavebuiltrobotsthatcanrecognizetheerrorofamachinepanelbyafractionofamillimeterinacontrolledfactoryenvironment.Butthehumanmindcanglimpsearapidlychangingsceneandimmediatelydisregardthe98percentthatisirrelevant,instantaneouslyfocusingonthemonkeyatthesideofawindingforestroadorthesinglesuspiciousfaceinabigcrowd.ThemostadvancedcomputersystemsonEarthcan'tapproachthatkindofability,andneuroscientistsstilldon'tknowquitehowwedoit.　　26.Humaningenuitywasinitiallydemonstratedin

PASSAGETWO(1)Sincethedawnofhumaningenuity,peoplehavedevisedevermorecunningtoolstocopewithworkthatisdangerous,boring,burdensome,orjustplainnasty.Thatcompulsionhasresultedinrobotics—thescienceofconferringvarioushumancapabilitiesonmachines.Andifscientistshaveyettocreatethemechanicalversionofsciencefiction,theyhavebeguntocomeclose.(2)Asaresult,themodernworldisincreasinglypopulatedbyintelligentgizmoswhosepresencewebarelynoticebutwhoseuniversalexistencehasremovedmuchhumanlabor.Ourfactorieshumtotherhythmofrobotassemblyarms.Ourbankingisdoneatautomatedtellerterminalsthatthankuswithmechanicalpolitenessforthetransaction.Oursubwaytrainsarecontrolledbytirelessrobot-drivers.Andthankstothecontinualminiaturizationofelectronicsandmicro-mechanics,therearealreadyrobotsystemsthatcanperformsomekindsofbrainandbonesurgerywithsubmillimeteraccuracy—fargreaterprecisionthanhighlyskilledphysicianscanachievewiththeirhandsalone.(3)Butifrobotsaretoreachthenextstageoflaborsavingutility,theywillhavetooperatewithlesshumansupervisionandbeabletomakeatleastafewdecisionsforthemselves—goalsthatposearealchallenge.“Whileweknowhowtotellarobottohandleaspecificerror,”saysDaveLavery,managerofaroboticsprogramatNASA,“wecan'tyetgivearobotenough‘commonsense’toreliablyinteractwithadynamicworld.”(4)Indeed,thequestfortrueartificialintelligencehasproducedverymixedresults.Despiteaspellofinitialoptimisminthe1960sand1970swhenitappearedthattransistorcircuitsandmicroprocessorsmightbeabletocopytheactionofthehumanbrainbytheyear2010,researcherslatelyhavebeguntoextendthatforecastbydecadesifnotcenturies.(5)Whattheyfound,inattemptingtomodelthought,isthatthehumanbrain'sroughlyonehundredbillionnervecellsaremuchmoretalented—andhumanperceptionfarmorecomplicated—thanpreviouslyimagined.Theyhavebuiltrobotsthatcanrecognizetheerrorofamachinepanelbyafractionofamillimeterinacontrolledfactoryenvironment.Butthehumanmindcanglimpsearapidlychangingsceneandimmediatelydisregardthe98percentthatisirrelevant,instantaneouslyfocusingonthemonkeyatthesideofawindingforestroadorthesinglesuspiciousfaceinabigcrowd.ThemostadvancedcomputersystemsonEarthcan'tapproachthatkindofability,andneuroscientistsstilldon'tknowquitehowwedoit.27.Theword“gizmos"(line1,paragraph2)mostprobablymeans

PASSAGETWO(1)Sincethedawnofhumaningenuity,peoplehavedevisedevermorecunningtoolstocopewithworkthatisdangerous,boring,burdensome,orjustplainnasty.Thatcompulsionhasresultedinrobotics—thescienceofconferringvarioushumancapabilitiesonmachines.Andifscientistshaveyettocreatethemechanicalversionofsciencefiction,theyhavebeguntocomeclose.(2)Asaresult,themodernworldisincreasinglypopulatedbyintelligentgizmoswhosepresencewebarelynoticebutwhoseuniversalexistencehasremovedmuchhumanlabor.Ourfactorieshumtotherhythmofrobotassemblyarms.Ourbankingisdoneatautomatedtellerterminalsthatthankuswithmechanicalpolitenessforthetransaction.Oursubwaytrainsarecontrolledbytirelessrobot-drivers.Andthankstothecontinualminiaturizationofelectronicsandmicro-mechanics,therearealreadyrobotsystemsthatcanperformsomekindsofbrainandbonesurgerywithsubmillimeteraccuracy—fargreaterprecisionthanhighlyskilledphysicianscanachievewiththeirhandsalone.(3)Butifrobotsaretoreachthenextstageoflaborsavingutility,theywillhavetooperatewithlesshumansupervisionandbeabletomakeatleastafewdecisionsforthemselves—goalsthatposearealchallenge.“Whileweknowhowtotellarobottohandleaspecificerror,”saysDaveLavery,managerofaroboticsprogramatNASA,“wecan'tyetgivearobotenough‘commonsense’toreliablyinteractwithadynamicworld.”(4)Indeed,thequestfortrueartificialintelligencehasproducedverymixedresults.Despiteaspellofinitialoptimisminthe1960sand1970swhenitappearedthattransistorcircuitsandmicroprocessorsmightbeabletocopytheactionofthehumanbrainbytheyear2010,researcherslatelyhavebeguntoextendthatforecastbydecadesifnotcenturies.(5)Whattheyfound,inattemptingtomodelthought,isthatthehumanbrain'sroughlyonehundredbillionnervecellsaremuchmoretalented—andhumanperceptionfarmorecomplicated—thanpreviouslyimagined.Theyhavebuiltrobotsthatcanrecognizetheerrorofamachinepanelbyafractionofamillimeterinacontrolledfactoryenvironment.Butthehumanmindcanglimpsearapidlychangingsceneandimmediatelydisregardthe98percentthatisirrelevant,instantaneouslyfocusingonthemonkeyatthesideofawindingforestroadorthesinglesuspiciousfaceinabigcrowd.ThemostadvancedcomputersystemsonEarthcan'tapproachthatkindofability,andneuroscientistsstilldon'tknowquitehowwedoit.28.Accordingtothetext,whatisbeyondman'sabilitynowistodesignarobotthatcan()

PASSAGETWO(1)Sincethedawnofhumaningenuity,peoplehavedevisedevermorecunningtoolstocopewithworkthatisdangerous,boring,burdensome,orjustplainnasty.Thatcompulsionhasresultedinrobotics—thescienceofconferringvarioushumancapabilitiesonmachines.Andifscientistshaveyettocreatethemechanicalversionofsciencefiction,theyhavebeguntocomeclose.(2)Asaresult,themodernworldisincreasinglypopulatedbyintelligentgizmoswhosepresencewebarelynoticebutwhoseuniversalexistencehasremovedmuchhumanlabor.Ourfactorieshumtotherhythmofrobotassemblyarms.Ourbankingisdoneatautomatedtellerterminalsthatthankuswithmechanicalpolitenessforthetransaction.Oursubwaytrainsarecontrolledbytirelessrobot-drivers.Andthankstothecontinualminiaturizationofelectronicsandmicro-mechanics,therearealreadyrobotsystemsthatcanperformsomekindsofbrainandbonesurgerywithsubmillimeteraccuracy—fargreaterprecisionthanhighlyskilledphysicianscanachievewiththeirhandsalone.(3)Butifrobotsaretoreachthenextstageoflaborsavingutility,theywillhavetooperatewithlesshumansupervisionandbeabletomakeatleastafewdecisionsforthemselves—goalsthatposearealchallenge.“Whileweknowhowtotellarobottohandleaspecificerror,”saysDaveLavery,managerofaroboticsprogramatNASA,“wecan'tyetgivearobotenough‘commonsense’toreliablyinteractwithadynamicworld.”(4)Indeed,thequestfortrueartificialintelligencehasproducedverymixedresults.Despiteaspellofinitialoptimisminthe1960sand1970swhenitappearedthattransistorcircuitsandmicroprocessorsmightbeabletocopytheactionofthehumanbrainbytheyear2010,researcherslatelyhavebeguntoextendthatforecastbydecadesifnotcenturies.(5)Whattheyfound,inattemptingtomodelthought,isthatthehumanbrain'sroughlyonehundredbillionnervecellsaremuchmoretalented—andhumanperceptionfarmorecomplicated—thanpreviouslyimagined.Theyhavebuiltrobotsthatcanrecognizetheerrorofamachinepanelbyafractionofamillimeterinacontrolledfactoryenvironment.Butthehumanmindcanglimpsearapidlychangingsceneandimmediatelydisregardthe98percentthatisirrelevant,instantaneouslyfocusingonthemonkeyatthesideofawindingforestroadorthesinglesuspiciousfaceinabigcrowd.ThemostadvancedcomputersystemsonEarthcan'tapproachthatkindofability,andneuroscientistsstilldon'tknowquitehowwedoit.29.Besidesreducinghumanlabor,robotscanalso()

PASSAGETWO(1)Sincethedawnofhumaningenuity,peoplehavedevisedevermorecunningtoolstocopewithworkthatisdangerous,boring,burdensome,orjustplainnasty.Thatcompulsionhasresultedinrobotics—thescienceofconferringvarioushumancapabilitiesonmachines.Andifscientistshaveyettocreatethemechanicalversionofsciencefiction,theyhavebeguntocomeclose.(2)Asaresult,themodernworldisincreasinglypopulatedbyintelligentgizmoswhosepresencewebarelynoticebutwhoseuniversalexistencehasremovedmuchhumanlabor.Ourfactorieshumtotherhythmofrobotassemblyarms.Ourbankingisdoneatautomatedtellerterminalsthatthankuswithmechanicalpolitenessforthetransaction.Oursubwaytrainsarecontrolledbytirelessrobot-drivers.Andthankstothecontinualminiaturizationofelectronicsandmicro-mechanics,therearealreadyrobotsystemsthatcanperformsomekindsofbrainandbonesurgerywithsubmillimeteraccuracy—fargreaterprecisionthanhighlyskilledphysicianscanachievewiththeirhandsalone.(3)Butifrobotsaretoreachthenextstageoflaborsavingutility,theywillhavetooperatewithlesshumansupervisionandbeabletomakeatleastafewdecisionsforthemselves—goalsthatposearealchallenge.“Whileweknowhowtotellarobottohandleaspecificerror,”saysDaveLavery,managerofaroboticsprogramatNASA,“wecan'tyetgivearobotenough‘commonsense’toreliablyinteractwithadynamicworld.”(4)Indeed,thequestfortrueartificialintelligencehasproducedverymixedresults.Despiteaspellofinitialoptimisminthe1960sand1970swhenitappearedthattransistorcircuitsandmicroprocessorsmightbeabletocopytheactionofthehumanbrainbytheyear2010,researcherslatelyhavebeguntoextendthatforecastbydecadesifnotcenturies.(5)Whattheyfound,inattemptingtomodelthought,isthatthehumanbrain'sroughlyonehundredbillionnervecellsaremuchmoretalented—andhumanperceptionfarmorecomplicated—thanpreviouslyimagined.Theyhavebuiltrobotsthatcanrecognizetheerrorofamachinepanelbyafractionofamillimeterinacontrolledfactoryenvironment.Butthehumanmindcanglimpsearapidlychangingsceneandimmediatelydisregardthe98percentthatisirrelevant,instantaneouslyfocusingonthemonkeyatthesideofawindingforestroadorthesinglesuspiciousfaceinabigcrowd.ThemostadvancedcomputersystemsonEarthcan'tapproachthatkindofability,andneuroscientistsstilldon'tknowquitehowwedoit.30.Theauthorusestheexampleofamonkeytoarguethatrobotsare(）

PASSAGETHREE(1)Couldthebadolddaysofeconomicdeclinebeabouttoreturn?SinceOPECagreedtosupply-cutsinMarch,thepriceofcrudeoilhasjumpedtoalmost10lastDecember.Thisnear-triplingofoilpricescallsupscarymemoriesofthe1973oilshock,whenpricesquadrupled,and1979-1980,whentheyalsoalmosttripled.Bothpreviousshocksresultedindouble-digitinflationandglobaleconomicdecline.Sowherearetheheadlineswarningofgloomanddoomthistime?(2)TheoilpricewasgivenanotherpushupthisweekwhenIraqsuspendedoilexports.Strengtheningeconomicgrowth,atthesametimeaswintergripsthenorthernhemisphere,couldpushthepricehigherstillintheshortterm.(3)Yettherearegoodreasonstoexpecttheeconomicconsequencesnowtobelessseverethaninthe1970s.Inmostcountriesthecostofcrudeoilnowaccountsforasmallershareofthepriceofpetrolthanitdidinthe1970s.InEurope,taxesaccountforuptofour-fifthsoftheretailprice,soevenquitebigchangesinthepriceofcrudehaveamoremutedeffectonpumppricesthaninthepast.(4)Richeconomiesarealsolessdependentonoilthantheywere,andsolesssensitivetoswingsintheoilprice.Energyconservation,ashifttootherfuelsandadeclineintheimportanceofheavy,energy-intensiveindustrieshavereducedoilconsumption.Software,consultancyandmobiletelephonesusefarlessoilthansteelorcarproduction.ForeachdollarofGDP(inconstantprices)richeconomiesnowusenearly50%lessoilthanin1973.TheOECDestimatesinitslatestEconomicOutlookthat,ifoilpricesaveraged13in1998,thiswouldincreasetheoilimportbillinricheconomiesbyonly0.25-0.5%ofGDP.Thatislessthanone-quarteroftheincomelossin1974or1980.Ontheotherhand,oil-importingemergingeconomies—towhichheavyindustryhasshifted—havebecomemoreenergy-intensive,andsocouldbemoreseriouslysqueezed.(5)Onemorereasonnottolosesleepovertheriseinoilpricesisthat,unliketherisesinthe1970s,ithasnotoccurredagainstthebackgroundofgeneralcommodity-priceinflationandglobalexcessdemand.Asizableportionoftheworldisonlyjustemergingfromeconomicdecline.TheEconomist'scommoditypriceindexisbroadlyunchangingfromayearago.In1973commoditypricesjumpedby70%，andin1979byalmost30%.　31.Themainreasonforthelatestriseofoilpriceis

PASSAGETHREE(1)Couldthebadolddaysofeconomicdeclinebeabouttoreturn?SinceOPECagreedtosupply-cutsinMarch,thepriceofcrudeoilhasjumpedtoalmost10lastDecember.Thisnear-triplingofoilpricescallsupscarymemoriesofthe1973oilshock,whenpricesquadrupled,and1979-1980,whentheyalsoalmosttripled.Bothpreviousshocksresultedindouble-digitinflationandglobaleconomicdecline.Sowherearetheheadlineswarningofgloomanddoomthistime?(2)TheoilpricewasgivenanotherpushupthisweekwhenIraqsuspendedoilexports.Strengtheningeconomicgrowth,atthesametimeaswintergripsthenorthernhemisphere,couldpushthepricehigherstillintheshortterm.(3)Yettherearegoodreasonstoexpecttheeconomicconsequencesnowtobelessseverethaninthe1970s.Inmostcountriesthecostofcrudeoilnowaccountsforasmallershareofthepriceofpetrolthanitdidinthe1970s.InEurope,taxesaccountforuptofour-fifthsoftheretailprice,soevenquitebigchangesinthepriceofcrudehaveamoremutedeffectonpumppricesthaninthepast.(4)Richeconomiesarealsolessdependentonoilthantheywere,andsolesssensitivetoswingsintheoilprice.Energyconservation,ashifttootherfuelsandadeclineintheimportanceofheavy,energy-intensiveindustrieshavereducedoilconsumption.Software,consultancyandmobiletelephonesusefarlessoilthansteelorcarproduction.ForeachdollarofGDP(inconstantprices)richeconomiesnowusenearly50%lessoilthanin1973.TheOECDestimatesinitslatestEconomicOutlookthat,ifoilpricesaveraged13in1998,thiswouldincreasetheoilimportbillinricheconomiesbyonly0.25-0.5%ofGDP.Thatislessthanone-quarteroftheincomelossin1974or1980.Ontheotherhand,oil-importingemergingeconomies—towhichheavyindustryhasshifted—havebecomemoreenergy-intensive,andsocouldbemoreseriouslysqueezed.(5)Onemorereasonnottolosesleepovertheriseinoilpricesisthat,unliketherisesinthe1970s,ithasnotoccurredagainstthebackgroundofgeneralcommodity-priceinflationandglobalexcessdemand.Asizableportionoftheworldisonlyjustemergingfromeconomicdecline.TheEconomist'scommoditypriceindexisbroadlyunchangingfromayearago.In1973commoditypricesjumpedby70%，andin1979byalmost30%.32.Itcanbeinferredfromthetextthattheretailpriceofpetrolwillgoupdramaticallyif()

PASSAGETHREE(1)Couldthebadolddaysofeconomicdeclinebeabouttoreturn?SinceOPECagreedtosupply-cutsinMarch,thepriceofcrudeoilhasjumpedtoalmost10lastDecember.Thisnear-triplingofoilpricescallsupscarymemoriesofthe1973oilshock,whenpricesquadrupled,and1979-1980,whentheyalsoalmosttripled.Bothpreviousshocksresultedindouble-digitinflationandglobaleconomicdecline.Sowherearetheheadlineswarningofgloomanddoomthistime?(2)TheoilpricewasgivenanotherpushupthisweekwhenIraqsuspendedoilexports.Strengtheningeconomicgrowth,atthesametimeaswintergripsthenorthernhemisphere,couldpushthepricehigherstillintheshortterm.(3)Yettherearegoodreasonstoexpecttheeconomicconsequencesnowtobelessseverethaninthe1970s.Inmostcountriesthecostofcrudeoilnowaccountsforasmallershareofthepriceofpetrolthanitdidinthe1970s.InEurope,taxesaccountforuptofour-fifthsoftheretailprice,soevenquitebigchangesinthepriceofcrudehaveamoremutedeffectonpumppricesthaninthepast.(4)Richeconomiesarealsolessdependentonoilthantheywere,andsolesssensitivetoswingsintheoilprice.Energyconservation,ashifttootherfuelsandadeclineintheimportanceofheavy,energy-intensiveindustrieshavereducedoilconsumption.Software,consultancyandmobiletelephonesusefarlessoilthansteelorcarproduction.ForeachdollarofGDP(inconstantprices)richeconomiesnowusenearly50%lessoilthanin1973.TheOECDestimatesinitslatestEconomicOutlookthat,ifoilpricesaveraged13in1998,thiswouldincreasetheoilimportbillinricheconomiesbyonly0.25-0.5%ofGDP.Thatislessthanone-quarteroftheincomelossin1974or1980.Ontheotherhand,oil-importingemergingeconomies—towhichheavyindustryhasshifted—havebecomemoreenergy-intensive,andsocouldbemoreseriouslysqueezed.(5)Onemorereasonnottolosesleepovertheriseinoilpricesisthat,unliketherisesinthe1970s,ithasnotoccurredagainstthebackgroundofgeneralcommodity-priceinflationandglobalexcessdemand.Asizableportionoftheworldisonlyjustemergingfromeconomicdecline.TheEconomist'scommoditypriceindexisbroadlyunchangingfromayearago.In1973commoditypricesjumpedby70%，andin1979byalmost30%.33.TheestimatesinEconomicOutlookshowthatinrichcountries

PASSAGETHREE(1)Couldthebadolddaysofeconomicdeclinebeabouttoreturn?SinceOPECagreedtosupply-cutsinMarch,thepriceofcrudeoilhasjumpedtoalmost10lastDecember.Thisnear-triplingofoilpricescallsupscarymemoriesofthe1973oilshock,whenpricesquadrupled,and1979-1980,whentheyalsoalmosttripled.Bothpreviousshocksresultedindouble-digitinflationandglobaleconomicdecline.Sowherearetheheadlineswarningofgloomanddoomthistime?(2)TheoilpricewasgivenanotherpushupthisweekwhenIraqsuspendedoilexports.Strengtheningeconomicgrowth,atthesametimeaswintergripsthenorthernhemisphere,couldpushthepricehigherstillintheshortterm.(3)Yettherearegoodreasonstoexpecttheeconomicconsequencesnowtobelessseverethaninthe1970s.Inmostcountriesthecostofcrudeoilnowaccountsforasmallershareofthepriceofpetrolthanitdidinthe1970s.InEurope,taxesaccountforuptofour-fifthsoftheretailprice,soevenquitebigchangesinthepriceofcrudehaveamoremutedeffectonpumppricesthaninthepast.(4)Richeconomiesarealsolessdependentonoilthantheywere,andsolesssensitivetoswingsintheoilprice.Energyconservation,ashifttootherfuelsandadeclineintheimportanceofheavy,energy-intensiveindustrieshavereducedoilconsumption.Software,consultancyandmobiletelephonesusefarlessoilthansteelorcarproduction.ForeachdollarofGDP(inconstantprices)richeconomiesnowusenearly50%lessoilthanin1973.TheOECDestimatesinitslatestEconomicOutlookthat,ifoilpricesaveraged13in1998,thiswouldincreasetheoilimportbillinricheconomiesbyonly0.25-0.5%ofGDP.Thatislessthanone-quarteroftheincomelossin1974or1980.Ontheotherhand,oil-importingemergingeconomies—towhichheavyindustryhasshifted—havebecomemoreenergy-intensive,andsocouldbemoreseriouslysqueezed.(5)Onemorereasonnottolosesleepovertheriseinoilpricesisthat,unliketherisesinthe1970s,ithasnotoccurredagainstthebackgroundofgeneralcommodity-priceinflationandglobalexcessdemand.Asizableportionoftheworldisonlyjustemergingfromeconomicdecline.TheEconomist'scommoditypriceindexisbroadlyunchangingfromayearago.In1973commoditypricesjumpedby70%，andin1979byalmost30%.34.Wecandrawaconclusionfromthetextthat()

PASSAGETHREE(1)Couldthebadolddaysofeconomicdeclinebeabouttoreturn?SinceOPECagreedtosupply-cutsinMarch,thepriceofcrudeoilhasjumpedtoalmost10lastDecember.Thisnear-triplingofoilpricescallsupscarymemoriesofthe1973oilshock,whenpricesquadrupled,and1979-1980,whentheyalsoalmosttripled.Bothpreviousshocksresultedindouble-digitinflationandglobaleconomicdecline.Sowherearetheheadlineswarningofgloomanddoomthistime?(2)TheoilpricewasgivenanotherpushupthisweekwhenIraqsuspendedoilexports.Strengtheningeconomicgrowth,atthesametimeaswintergripsthenorthernhemisphere,couldpushthepricehigherstillintheshortterm.(3)Yettherearegoodreasonstoexpecttheeconomicconsequencesnowtobelessseverethaninthe1970s.Inmostcountriesthecostofcrudeoilnowaccountsforasmallershareofthepriceofpetrolthanitdidinthe1970s.InEurope,taxesaccountforuptofour-fifthsoftheretailprice,soevenquitebigchangesinthepriceofcrudehaveamoremutedeffectonpumppricesthaninthepast.(4)Richeconomiesarealsolessdependentonoilthantheywere,andsolesssensitivetoswingsintheoilprice.Energyconservation,ashifttootherfuelsandadeclineintheimportanceofheavy,energy-intensiveindustrieshavereducedoilconsumption.Software,consultancyandmobiletelephonesusefarlessoilthansteelorcarproduction.ForeachdollarofGDP(inconstantprices)richeconomiesnowusenearly50%lessoilthanin1973.TheOECDestimatesinitslatestEconomicOutlookthat,ifoilpricesaveraged13in1998,thiswouldincreasetheoilimportbillinricheconomiesbyonly0.25-0.5%ofGDP.Thatislessthanone-quarteroftheincomelossin1974or1980.Ontheotherhand,oil-importingemergingeconomies—towhichheavyindustryhasshifted—havebecomemoreenergy-intensive,andsocouldbemoreseriouslysqueezed.(5)Onemorereasonnottolosesleepovertheriseinoilpricesisthat,unliketherisesinthe1970s,ithasnotoccurredagainstthebackgroundofgeneralcommodity-priceinflationandglobalexcessdemand.Asizableportionoftheworldisonlyjustemergingfromeconomicdecline.TheEconomist'scommoditypriceindexisbroadlyunchangingfromayearago.In1973commoditypricesjumpedby70%，andin1979byalmost30%.35.Fromthetextwecanseethatthewriterseems()

PASSAGEFOUR(1)TheSupremeCourt'sdecisionsonphysician-assistedsuicidecarryimportantimplicationsforhowmedicineseekstorelievedyingpatientsofpainandsuffering.(2)Althoughitruledthatthereisnoconstitutionalrighttophysician-assistedsuicide,theCourtineffectsupportedthemedicalprincipleof"doubleeffect",acenturies-oldmoralprincipleholdingthatanactionhavingtwoeffects—agoodonethatisintendedandaharmfulonethatisforeseen—ispermissibleiftheactorintendsonlythegoodeffect.(3)Doctorshaveusedthatprincipleinrecentyearstojustifyusinghighdosesofmorphinetocontrolterminallyillpatients'pain,eventhoughincreasingdosageswilleventuallykillthepatient.(4)NancyDubler,directorofMontefioreMedicalCenter,contendsthattheprinciplewillshielddoctorswho"untilnowhavevery,verystronglyinsistedthattheycouldnotgivepatientssufficientmediationtocontroltheirpainifthatmighthastendeath."(5)GeorgeAnnas,chairofthehealthlawdepartmentatBostonUniversity,maintainsthat,aslongasadoctorprescribesadrugforalegitimatemedicalpurpose,thedoctorhasdonenothingillegalevenifthepatientusesthedrugtohastendeath."It'slikesurgery,"hesays."Wedon'tcallthosedeathshomicidesbecausethedoctorsdidn'tintendtokilltheirpatients,althoughtheyriskedtheirdeath.Ifyou'reaphysician,youcanriskyourpatient'ssuicideaslongasyoudon'tintendtheirsuicide."(6)Onanotherlevel,manyinthemedicalcommunityacknowledgethattheassisted-suicidedebatehasbeenfueledinpartbythedespairofpatientsforwhommodemmedicinehasprolongedthephysicalagonyofdying.(7)JustthreeweeksbeforetheCourt'srulingonphysician-assistedsuicide,theNationalAcademyofScience(NAS)releasedatwo-volumereport,ApproachingDeath:ImprovingCareattheEndofLife.Itidentifiestheundertreatmentofpainandtheaggressiveuseof"ineffectualandforcedmedicalproceduresthatmayprolongandevendishonortheperiodofdying"asthetwinproblemsofend-of-lifecare.(8)Theprofessionistakingstepstorequireyoungdoctorstotraininhospices,totestknowledgeofaggressivepainmanagementtherapies,todevelopaMedicarebillingcodeforhospital-basedcare,andtodevelopnewstandardsforassessingandtreatingpainattheendoflife.(9)Annassayslawyerscanplayakeyroleininsistingthatthesewell-meaningmedicalinitiativestranslateintobettercare.“Largenumbersofphysiciansseemunconcernedwiththepaintheirpatientsareneedlesslyandpredictablysuffering,”totheextentthatitconstitutes“systematicpatientabuse。”Hesaysmedicallicensingboards“mustmakeitclear...thatpainfuldeathsarepresumptivelyonesthatareincompetentlymanagedandshouldresultinlicensesuspension.”　　36.Fromthefirstthreeparagraphs,welearnthat

PASSAGEFOUR(1)TheSupremeCourt'sdecisionsonphysician-assistedsuicidecarryimportantimplicationsforhowmedicineseekstorelievedyingpatientsofpainandsuffering.(2)Althoughitruledthatthereisnoconstitutionalrighttophysician-assistedsuicide,theCourtineffectsupportedthemedicalprincipleof"doubleeffect",acenturies-oldmoralprincipleholdingthatanactionhavingtwoeffects—agoodonethatisintendedandaharmfulonethatisforeseen—ispermissibleiftheactorintendsonlythegoodeffect.(3)Doctorshaveusedthatprincipleinrecentyearstojustifyusinghighdosesofmorphinetocontrolterminallyillpatients'pain,eventhoughincreasingdosageswilleventuallykillthepatient.(4)NancyDubler,directorofMontefioreMedicalCenter,contendsthattheprinciplewillshielddoctorswho"untilnowhavevery,verystronglyinsistedthattheycouldnotgivepatientssufficientmediationtocontroltheirpainifthatmighthastendeath."(5)GeorgeAnnas,chairofthehealthlawdepartmentatBostonUniversity,maintainsthat,aslongasadoctorprescribesadrugforalegitimatemedicalpurpose,thedoctorhasdonenothingillegalevenifthepatientusesthedrugtohastendeath."It'slikesurgery,"hesays."Wedon'tcallthosedeathshomicidesbecausethedoctorsdidn'tintendtokilltheirpatients,althoughtheyriskedtheirdeath.Ifyou'reaphysician,youcanriskyourpatient'ssuicideaslongasyoudon'tintendtheirsuicide."(6)Onanotherlevel,manyinthemedicalcommunityacknowledgethattheassisted-suicidedebatehasbeenfueledinpartbythedespairofpatientsforwhommodemmedicinehasprolongedthephysicalagonyofdying.(7)JustthreeweeksbeforetheCourt'srulingonphysician-assistedsuicide,theNationalAcademyofScience(NAS)releasedatwo-volumereport,ApproachingDeath:ImprovingCareattheEndofLife.Itidentifiestheundertreatmentofpainandtheaggressiveuseof"ineffectualandforcedmedicalproceduresthatmayprolongandevendishonortheperiodofdying"asthetwinproblemsofend-of-lifecare.(8)Theprofessionistakingstepstorequireyoungdoctorstotraininhospices,totestknowledgeofaggressivepainmanagementtherapies,todevelopaMedicarebillingcodeforhospital-basedcare,andtodevelopnewstandardsforassessingandtreatingpainattheendoflife.(9)Annassayslawyerscanplayakeyroleininsistingthatthesewell-meaningmedicalinitiativestranslateintobettercare.“Largenumbersofphysiciansseemunconcernedwiththepaintheirpatientsareneedlesslyandpredictablysuffering,”totheextentthatitconstitutes“systematicpatientabuse。”Hesaysmedicallicensingboards“mustmakeitclear...thatpainfuldeathsarepresumptivelyonesthatareincompetentlymanagedandshouldresultinlicensesuspension.”37.Whichofthefollowingstatementsitstrueaccordingtothetext?