在线名词解释大全 - test - 详细

PASSAGETHREE(1)Couldthebadolddaysofeconomicdeclinebeabouttoreturn?SinceOPECagreedtosupply-cutsinMarch,thepriceofcrudeoilhasjumpedtoalmost10lastDecember.Thisnear-triplingofoilpricescallsupscarymemoriesofthe1973oilshock,whenpricesquadrupled,and1979-1980,whentheyalsoalmosttripled.Bothpreviousshocksresultedindouble-digitinflationandglobaleconomicdecline.Sowherearetheheadlineswarningofgloomanddoomthistime?(2)TheoilpricewasgivenanotherpushupthisweekwhenIraqsuspendedoilexports.Strengtheningeconomicgrowth,atthesametimeaswintergripsthenorthernhemisphere,couldpushthepricehigherstillintheshortterm.(3)Yettherearegoodreasonstoexpecttheeconomicconsequencesnowtobelessseverethaninthe1970s.Inmostcountriesthecostofcrudeoilnowaccountsforasmallershareofthepriceofpetrolthanitdidinthe1970s.InEurope,taxesaccountforuptofour-fifthsoftheretailprice,soevenquitebigchangesinthepriceofcrudehaveamoremutedeffectonpumppricesthaninthepast.(4)Richeconomiesarealsolessdependentonoilthantheywere,andsolesssensitivetoswingsintheoilprice.Energyconservation,ashifttootherfuelsandadeclineintheimportanceofheavy,energy-intensiveindustrieshavereducedoilconsumption.Software,consultancyandmobiletelephonesusefarlessoilthansteelorcarproduction.ForeachdollarofGDP(inconstantprices)richeconomiesnowusenearly50%lessoilthanin1973.TheOECDestimatesinitslatestEconomicOutlookthat,ifoilpricesaveraged13in1998,thiswouldincreasetheoilimportbillinricheconomiesbyonly0.25-0.5%ofGDP.Thatislessthanone-quarteroftheincomelossin1974or1980.Ontheotherhand,oil-importingemergingeconomies—towhichheavyindustryhasshifted—havebecomemoreenergy-intensive,andsocouldbemoreseriouslysqueezed.(5)Onemorereasonnottolosesleepovertheriseinoilpricesisthat,unliketherisesinthe1970s,ithasnotoccurredagainstthebackgroundofgeneralcommodity-priceinflationandglobalexcessdemand.Asizableportionoftheworldisonlyjustemergingfromeconomicdecline.TheEconomist'scommoditypriceindexisbroadlyunchangingfromayearago.In1973commoditypricesjumpedby70%,andin1979byalmost30%.32.Itcanbeinferredfromthetextthattheretailpriceofpetrolwillgoupdramaticallyif()

【答案】 D

  【考点】 推断题。

  【分析】 根据题干可以定位到第三段的第三句话“In Europe, taxes account for up to four-fifths of the retail price,so even quite big changes in the price of crude have a more muted effect on pump prices than in the past。.”意思是说“在欧洲,税占汽油的零售价的五分之四,因此相比以往,原油的价格变化对汽油的影响不会很明显”。也就是说税的增加会导致汽油价格的猛涨,而原油价格的变化带来的影响不会很大。本题一个理解的难度是“muted effect”,另外一个是“pump price”。“mute”表示“哑巴的,无声的,沉默的”,和“effect”连用,表示“影响不明显”;而“pump price”是一个很形象的说法,“pump”指的是“泵”,这里很形象用“pump”指代“汽油”。根据上述分析,可以得出答案是[D]。

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