PASSAGEONE(1)Attheageoftwelveyears,thehumanbodyisatitsmostvigorous.Ithasyettoreachitsfullsizeandstrength,anditsownerhisorherfullintelligence;butatthisagethelikelihoodofdeathisleast.Earlier,wewereinfantsandyoungchildren,andconsequentlymorevulnerable;later,weshallundergoaprogressivelossofourvigorandresistancewhich,thoughimperceptibleatfirst,willfinallybecomesosteepthatwecanlivenolonger,howeverwellwelookafterourselves,andhoweverwellsociety,andourdoctors,lookafterus.(2)Thisdeclineinvigorwiththepassingoftimeiscalledageing.Itisoneofthemostunpleasantdiscoverieswhichweallmakethatwemustdeclineinthisway,thatifweescapewars,accidentsanddiseaseweshalleventually"dieofoldage",andthatthishappensataratewhichdifferslittlefrompersontoperson,sothatthereareheavyoddsinfavorofourdyingbetweentheagesofsixty-fiveandeighty.Someofuswilldiesooner,afewwilllivelonger—onintoaninthortenthdecade.Butthechancesareagainstit,andthereisavirtuallimitonhowlongwecanhopetoremainalive,howeverluckyandrobustweare.(3)Normalpeopletendtoforgetthisprocessunlessanduntiltheyareremindedofit.Wearesofamiliarwiththefactthatmanages,thatpeoplehaveforyearsassumedthattheprocessoflosingvigorwithtime,ofbecomingmorelikelytodietheolderweget,wassomethingself-evident,likethecoolingofahotkettleorthewearing-outofapairofshoes.Theyhavealsoassumedthatallanimals,andprobablyotherorganismssuchastrees,oreventheuniverseitself,mustinthenatureofthings"wearout".(4)Mostanimalswecommonlyobservedoinfactageaswedo,ifgiventhechancetolivelongenough;andmechanicalsystemslikeawoundwatch,orthesun,doinfactanoutofenergyinaccordancewiththesecondlawofthermodynamics(热力学)(whetherthewholeuniversedoessoisamootpointatpresent).Butthesearenotanalogoustowhathappenswhenmanages.Arun-downwatchisstillawatchandcanberewound.Anoldwatch,bycontrast,becomessowornandunreliablethatiteventuallyisnotworthmending.Butawatchcouldneverrepairitself—itdoesnotconsistoflivingparts,onlyofmetal,whichwearsawaybyfriction.Wecould,atonetime,repairourselves—wellenough,atleast,toovercomeallbutthemostinstantlyfatalillnessesandaccidents.Betweentwelveandeightyyearswegraduallylosethispower;anillnesswhichattwelvewouldknockusover,ateightycanknockusout,andintoourgrave.Ifwecouldstayasvigorousasweareattwelve,itwouldtakeabout700yearsforhalfofustodie,andanother700forthesurvivorstobereducedbyhalfagain.25.Whichofthefollowingbestfitsthestyleofthispassage?
[B]文体判断题。本文从衰老起始时间入手，主要介绍了衰老过程的相关内容。文中通过引用一些数据和使用对比等手段，说明了衰老的过程、必然性及其与机械装置损耗的区别所在。据此分析，本文属于说明文体，B为本题答案。A是本题的干扰项，文中没有出现独立...
PASSAGETWO(1)Sincethedawnofhumaningenuity,peoplehavedevisedevermorecunningtoolstocopewithworkthatisdangerous,boring,burdensome,orjustplainnasty.Thatcompulsionhasresultedinrobotics—thescienceofconferringvarioushumancapabilitiesonmachines.Andifscientistshaveyettocreatethemechanicalversionofsciencefiction,theyhavebeguntocomeclose.(2)Asaresult,themodernworldisincreasinglypopulatedbyintelligentgizmoswhosepresencewebarelynoticebutwhoseuniversalexistencehasremovedmuchhumanlabor.Ourfactorieshumtotherhythmofrobotassemblyarms.Ourbankingisdoneatautomatedtellerterminalsthatthankuswithmechanicalpolitenessforthetransaction.Oursubwaytrainsarecontrolledbytirelessrobot-drivers.Andthankstothecontinualminiaturizationofelectronicsandmicro-mechanics,therearealreadyrobotsystemsthatcanperformsomekindsofbrainandbonesurgerywithsubmillimeteraccuracy—fargreaterprecisionthanhighlyskilledphysicianscanachievewiththeirhandsalone.(3)Butifrobotsaretoreachthenextstageoflaborsavingutility,theywillhavetooperatewithlesshumansupervisionandbeabletomakeatleastafewdecisionsforthemselves—goalsthatposearealchallenge.“Whileweknowhowtotellarobottohandleaspecificerror,”saysDaveLavery,managerofaroboticsprogramatNASA,“wecan'tyetgivearobotenough‘commonsense’toreliablyinteractwithadynamicworld.”(4)Indeed,thequestfortrueartificialintelligencehasproducedverymixedresults.Despiteaspellofinitialoptimisminthe1960sand1970swhenitappearedthattransistorcircuitsandmicroprocessorsmightbeabletocopytheactionofthehumanbrainbytheyear2010,researcherslatelyhavebeguntoextendthatforecastbydecadesifnotcenturies.(5)Whattheyfound,inattemptingtomodelthought,isthatthehumanbrain'sroughlyonehundredbillionnervecellsaremuchmoretalented—andhumanperceptionfarmorecomplicated—thanpreviouslyimagined.Theyhavebuiltrobotsthatcanrecognizetheerrorofamachinepanelbyafractionofamillimeterinacontrolledfactoryenvironment.Butthehumanmindcanglimpsearapidlychangingsceneandimmediatelydisregardthe98percentthatisirrelevant,instantaneouslyfocusingonthemonkeyatthesideofawindingforestroadorthesinglesuspiciousfaceinabigcrowd.ThemostadvancedcomputersystemsonEarthcan'tapproachthatkindofability,andneuroscientistsstilldon'tknowquitehowwedoit. 26.Humaningenuitywasinitiallydemonstratedin
【答案】 C 【考点】 事实细节题。 【分析】 通过“Human ingenuity”和“initially”可以定位到第一段开始。“从人类产生智慧初期至今，人们一直在设计越来越巧妙的工具来应付那些危险的、枯燥的、繁重的或者直接就是肮脏...
PASSAGETWO(1)Sincethedawnofhumaningenuity,peoplehavedevisedevermorecunningtoolstocopewithworkthatisdangerous,boring,burdensome,orjustplainnasty.Thatcompulsionhasresultedinrobotics—thescienceofconferringvarioushumancapabilitiesonmachines.Andifscientistshaveyettocreatethemechanicalversionofsciencefiction,theyhavebeguntocomeclose.(2)Asaresult,themodernworldisincreasinglypopulatedbyintelligentgizmoswhosepresencewebarelynoticebutwhoseuniversalexistencehasremovedmuchhumanlabor.Ourfactorieshumtotherhythmofrobotassemblyarms.Ourbankingisdoneatautomatedtellerterminalsthatthankuswithmechanicalpolitenessforthetransaction.Oursubwaytrainsarecontrolledbytirelessrobot-drivers.Andthankstothecontinualminiaturizationofelectronicsandmicro-mechanics,therearealreadyrobotsystemsthatcanperformsomekindsofbrainandbonesurgerywithsubmillimeteraccuracy—fargreaterprecisionthanhighlyskilledphysicianscanachievewiththeirhandsalone.(3)Butifrobotsaretoreachthenextstageoflaborsavingutility,theywillhavetooperatewithlesshumansupervisionandbeabletomakeatleastafewdecisionsforthemselves—goalsthatposearealchallenge.“Whileweknowhowtotellarobottohandleaspecificerror,”saysDaveLavery,managerofaroboticsprogramatNASA,“wecan'tyetgivearobotenough‘commonsense’toreliablyinteractwithadynamicworld.”(4)Indeed,thequestfortrueartificialintelligencehasproducedverymixedresults.Despiteaspellofinitialoptimisminthe1960sand1970swhenitappearedthattransistorcircuitsandmicroprocessorsmightbeabletocopytheactionofthehumanbrainbytheyear2010,researcherslatelyhavebeguntoextendthatforecastbydecadesifnotcenturies.(5)Whattheyfound,inattemptingtomodelthought,isthatthehumanbrain'sroughlyonehundredbillionnervecellsaremuchmoretalented—andhumanperceptionfarmorecomplicated—thanpreviouslyimagined.Theyhavebuiltrobotsthatcanrecognizetheerrorofamachinepanelbyafractionofamillimeterinacontrolledfactoryenvironment.Butthehumanmindcanglimpsearapidlychangingsceneandimmediatelydisregardthe98percentthatisirrelevant,instantaneouslyfocusingonthemonkeyatthesideofawindingforestroadorthesinglesuspiciousfaceinabigcrowd.ThemostadvancedcomputersystemsonEarthcan'tapproachthatkindofability,andneuroscientistsstilldon'tknowquitehowwedoit.27.Theword“gizmos"(line1,paragraph2)mostprobablymeans
【答案】 C 【考点】 词义题。 【分析】 本题虽然考查的是词义，但是显然不是希望考生通过储备更大的词汇来回答，而是希望考生能够利用文中出现的细节来推断这个单词的意思。第二段第一句的意思说“由此引起的结果是，现代世界已经充斥着越来越多的...
PASSAGETWO(1)Sincethedawnofhumaningenuity,peoplehavedevisedevermorecunningtoolstocopewithworkthatisdangerous,boring,burdensome,orjustplainnasty.Thatcompulsionhasresultedinrobotics—thescienceofconferringvarioushumancapabilitiesonmachines.Andifscientistshaveyettocreatethemechanicalversionofsciencefiction,theyhavebeguntocomeclose.(2)Asaresult,themodernworldisincreasinglypopulatedbyintelligentgizmoswhosepresencewebarelynoticebutwhoseuniversalexistencehasremovedmuchhumanlabor.Ourfactorieshumtotherhythmofrobotassemblyarms.Ourbankingisdoneatautomatedtellerterminalsthatthankuswithmechanicalpolitenessforthetransaction.Oursubwaytrainsarecontrolledbytirelessrobot-drivers.Andthankstothecontinualminiaturizationofelectronicsandmicro-mechanics,therearealreadyrobotsystemsthatcanperformsomekindsofbrainandbonesurgerywithsubmillimeteraccuracy—fargreaterprecisionthanhighlyskilledphysicianscanachievewiththeirhandsalone.(3)Butifrobotsaretoreachthenextstageoflaborsavingutility,theywillhavetooperatewithlesshumansupervisionandbeabletomakeatleastafewdecisionsforthemselves—goalsthatposearealchallenge.“Whileweknowhowtotellarobottohandleaspecificerror,”saysDaveLavery,managerofaroboticsprogramatNASA,“wecan'tyetgivearobotenough‘commonsense’toreliablyinteractwithadynamicworld.”(4)Indeed,thequestfortrueartificialintelligencehasproducedverymixedresults.Despiteaspellofinitialoptimisminthe1960sand1970swhenitappearedthattransistorcircuitsandmicroprocessorsmightbeabletocopytheactionofthehumanbrainbytheyear2010,researcherslatelyhavebeguntoextendthatforecastbydecadesifnotcenturies.(5)Whattheyfound,inattemptingtomodelthought,isthatthehumanbrain'sroughlyonehundredbillionnervecellsaremuchmoretalented—andhumanperceptionfarmorecomplicated—thanpreviouslyimagined.Theyhavebuiltrobotsthatcanrecognizetheerrorofamachinepanelbyafractionofamillimeterinacontrolledfactoryenvironment.Butthehumanmindcanglimpsearapidlychangingsceneandimmediatelydisregardthe98percentthatisirrelevant,instantaneouslyfocusingonthemonkeyatthesideofawindingforestroadorthesinglesuspiciousfaceinabigcrowd.ThemostadvancedcomputersystemsonEarthcan'tapproachthatkindofability,andneuroscientistsstilldon'tknowquitehowwedoit.28.Accordingtothetext,whatisbeyondman'sabilitynowistodesignarobotthatcan()
【答案】 D 【考点】 事实细节题。 【分析】 根据“超越人类能力”这个关键信息，我们可以定位到第三段中“Dave Lavery”的第二句话，即“we can’t yet give a robot enough ‘common sens...
PASSAGETWO(1)Sincethedawnofhumaningenuity,peoplehavedevisedevermorecunningtoolstocopewithworkthatisdangerous,boring,burdensome,orjustplainnasty.Thatcompulsionhasresultedinrobotics—thescienceofconferringvarioushumancapabilitiesonmachines.Andifscientistshaveyettocreatethemechanicalversionofsciencefiction,theyhavebeguntocomeclose.(2)Asaresult,themodernworldisincreasinglypopulatedbyintelligentgizmoswhosepresencewebarelynoticebutwhoseuniversalexistencehasremovedmuchhumanlabor.Ourfactorieshumtotherhythmofrobotassemblyarms.Ourbankingisdoneatautomatedtellerterminalsthatthankuswithmechanicalpolitenessforthetransaction.Oursubwaytrainsarecontrolledbytirelessrobot-drivers.Andthankstothecontinualminiaturizationofelectronicsandmicro-mechanics,therearealreadyrobotsystemsthatcanperformsomekindsofbrainandbonesurgerywithsubmillimeteraccuracy—fargreaterprecisionthanhighlyskilledphysicianscanachievewiththeirhandsalone.(3)Butifrobotsaretoreachthenextstageoflaborsavingutility,theywillhavetooperatewithlesshumansupervisionandbeabletomakeatleastafewdecisionsforthemselves—goalsthatposearealchallenge.“Whileweknowhowtotellarobottohandleaspecificerror,”saysDaveLavery,managerofaroboticsprogramatNASA,“wecan'tyetgivearobotenough‘commonsense’toreliablyinteractwithadynamicworld.”(4)Indeed,thequestfortrueartificialintelligencehasproducedverymixedresults.Despiteaspellofinitialoptimisminthe1960sand1970swhenitappearedthattransistorcircuitsandmicroprocessorsmightbeabletocopytheactionofthehumanbrainbytheyear2010,researcherslatelyhavebeguntoextendthatforecastbydecadesifnotcenturies.(5)Whattheyfound,inattemptingtomodelthought,isthatthehumanbrain'sroughlyonehundredbillionnervecellsaremuchmoretalented—andhumanperceptionfarmorecomplicated—thanpreviouslyimagined.Theyhavebuiltrobotsthatcanrecognizetheerrorofamachinepanelbyafractionofamillimeterinacontrolledfactoryenvironment.Butthehumanmindcanglimpsearapidlychangingsceneandimmediatelydisregardthe98percentthatisirrelevant,instantaneouslyfocusingonthemonkeyatthesideofawindingforestroadorthesinglesuspiciousfaceinabigcrowd.ThemostadvancedcomputersystemsonEarthcan'tapproachthatkindofability,andneuroscientistsstilldon'tknowquitehowwedoit.29.Besidesreducinghumanlabor,robotscanalso()
【答案】 B 【考点】 事实细节题。 【分析】 本题要求考生寻找机器人还能够从事什么工作，这就需要对四个选项进行比较。寻找答案。[A]提到机器人能够为自己做几个决策，通过“decision”这个单词可以定位到第三段第一句话“但是如果机器...
PASSAGETWO(1)Sincethedawnofhumaningenuity,peoplehavedevisedevermorecunningtoolstocopewithworkthatisdangerous,boring,burdensome,orjustplainnasty.Thatcompulsionhasresultedinrobotics—thescienceofconferringvarioushumancapabilitiesonmachines.Andifscientistshaveyettocreatethemechanicalversionofsciencefiction,theyhavebeguntocomeclose.(2)Asaresult,themodernworldisincreasinglypopulatedbyintelligentgizmoswhosepresencewebarelynoticebutwhoseuniversalexistencehasremovedmuchhumanlabor.Ourfactorieshumtotherhythmofrobotassemblyarms.Ourbankingisdoneatautomatedtellerterminalsthatthankuswithmechanicalpolitenessforthetransaction.Oursubwaytrainsarecontrolledbytirelessrobot-drivers.Andthankstothecontinualminiaturizationofelectronicsandmicro-mechanics,therearealreadyrobotsystemsthatcanperformsomekindsofbrainandbonesurgerywithsubmillimeteraccuracy—fargreaterprecisionthanhighlyskilledphysicianscanachievewiththeirhandsalone.(3)Butifrobotsaretoreachthenextstageoflaborsavingutility,theywillhavetooperatewithlesshumansupervisionandbeabletomakeatleastafewdecisionsforthemselves—goalsthatposearealchallenge.“Whileweknowhowtotellarobottohandleaspecificerror,”saysDaveLavery,managerofaroboticsprogramatNASA,“wecan'tyetgivearobotenough‘commonsense’toreliablyinteractwithadynamicworld.”(4)Indeed,thequestfortrueartificialintelligencehasproducedverymixedresults.Despiteaspellofinitialoptimisminthe1960sand1970swhenitappearedthattransistorcircuitsandmicroprocessorsmightbeabletocopytheactionofthehumanbrainbytheyear2010,researcherslatelyhavebeguntoextendthatforecastbydecadesifnotcenturies.(5)Whattheyfound,inattemptingtomodelthought,isthatthehumanbrain'sroughlyonehundredbillionnervecellsaremuchmoretalented—andhumanperceptionfarmorecomplicated—thanpreviouslyimagined.Theyhavebuiltrobotsthatcanrecognizetheerrorofamachinepanelbyafractionofamillimeterinacontrolledfactoryenvironment.Butthehumanmindcanglimpsearapidlychangingsceneandimmediatelydisregardthe98percentthatisirrelevant,instantaneouslyfocusingonthemonkeyatthesideofawindingforestroadorthesinglesuspiciousfaceinabigcrowd.ThemostadvancedcomputersystemsonEarthcan'tapproachthatkindofability,andneuroscientistsstilldon'tknowquitehowwedoit.30.Theauthorusestheexampleofamonkeytoarguethatrobotsare(）
【答案】 C 【考点】 作者意图题。 【分析】 作者最后一段提到“猴子”这个例子，是考查文章最后一段的理解。由于文章举这个例子就是为了说明计算机虽然功能强大，但是仍然无法和人脑的复杂性相比，因为人脑看一眼迅速变化的场景就能够迅速的排除不...
PASSAGETHREE(1)Couldthebadolddaysofeconomicdeclinebeabouttoreturn?SinceOPECagreedtosupply-cutsinMarch,thepriceofcrudeoilhasjumpedtoalmost10lastDecember.Thisnear-triplingofoilpricescallsupscarymemoriesofthe1973oilshock,whenpricesquadrupled,and1979-1980,whentheyalsoalmosttripled.Bothpreviousshocksresultedindouble-digitinflationandglobaleconomicdecline.Sowherearetheheadlineswarningofgloomanddoomthistime?(2)TheoilpricewasgivenanotherpushupthisweekwhenIraqsuspendedoilexports.Strengtheningeconomicgrowth,atthesametimeaswintergripsthenorthernhemisphere,couldpushthepricehigherstillintheshortterm.(3)Yettherearegoodreasonstoexpecttheeconomicconsequencesnowtobelessseverethaninthe1970s.Inmostcountriesthecostofcrudeoilnowaccountsforasmallershareofthepriceofpetrolthanitdidinthe1970s.InEurope,taxesaccountforuptofour-fifthsoftheretailprice,soevenquitebigchangesinthepriceofcrudehaveamoremutedeffectonpumppricesthaninthepast.(4)Richeconomiesarealsolessdependentonoilthantheywere,andsolesssensitivetoswingsintheoilprice.Energyconservation,ashifttootherfuelsandadeclineintheimportanceofheavy,energy-intensiveindustrieshavereducedoilconsumption.Software,consultancyandmobiletelephonesusefarlessoilthansteelorcarproduction.ForeachdollarofGDP(inconstantprices)richeconomiesnowusenearly50%lessoilthanin1973.TheOECDestimatesinitslatestEconomicOutlookthat,ifoilpricesaveraged13in1998,thiswouldincreasetheoilimportbillinricheconomiesbyonly0.25-0.5%ofGDP.Thatislessthanone-quarteroftheincomelossin1974or1980.Ontheotherhand,oil-importingemergingeconomies—towhichheavyindustryhasshifted—havebecomemoreenergy-intensive,andsocouldbemoreseriouslysqueezed.(5)Onemorereasonnottolosesleepovertheriseinoilpricesisthat,unliketherisesinthe1970s,ithasnotoccurredagainstthebackgroundofgeneralcommodity-priceinflationandglobalexcessdemand.Asizableportionoftheworldisonlyjustemergingfromeconomicdecline.TheEconomist'scommoditypriceindexisbroadlyunchangingfromayearago.In1973commoditypricesjumpedby70%，andin1979byalmost30%. 31.Themainreasonforthelatestriseofoilpriceis
【答案】 B 【考点】 事实细节题。 【分析】 根据题干可以定位到第一段的第二句话“Since OPEC agreed to supply-cuts in March, the price of crude oilhas jumped ...
PASSAGETHREE(1)Couldthebadolddaysofeconomicdeclinebeabouttoreturn?SinceOPECagreedtosupply-cutsinMarch,thepriceofcrudeoilhasjumpedtoalmost10lastDecember.Thisnear-triplingofoilpricescallsupscarymemoriesofthe1973oilshock,whenpricesquadrupled,and1979-1980,whentheyalsoalmosttripled.Bothpreviousshocksresultedindouble-digitinflationandglobaleconomicdecline.Sowherearetheheadlineswarningofgloomanddoomthistime?(2)TheoilpricewasgivenanotherpushupthisweekwhenIraqsuspendedoilexports.Strengtheningeconomicgrowth,atthesametimeaswintergripsthenorthernhemisphere,couldpushthepricehigherstillintheshortterm.(3)Yettherearegoodreasonstoexpecttheeconomicconsequencesnowtobelessseverethaninthe1970s.Inmostcountriesthecostofcrudeoilnowaccountsforasmallershareofthepriceofpetrolthanitdidinthe1970s.InEurope,taxesaccountforuptofour-fifthsoftheretailprice,soevenquitebigchangesinthepriceofcrudehaveamoremutedeffectonpumppricesthaninthepast.(4)Richeconomiesarealsolessdependentonoilthantheywere,andsolesssensitivetoswingsintheoilprice.Energyconservation,ashifttootherfuelsandadeclineintheimportanceofheavy,energy-intensiveindustrieshavereducedoilconsumption.Software,consultancyandmobiletelephonesusefarlessoilthansteelorcarproduction.ForeachdollarofGDP(inconstantprices)richeconomiesnowusenearly50%lessoilthanin1973.TheOECDestimatesinitslatestEconomicOutlookthat,ifoilpricesaveraged13in1998,thiswouldincreasetheoilimportbillinricheconomiesbyonly0.25-0.5%ofGDP.Thatislessthanone-quarteroftheincomelossin1974or1980.Ontheotherhand,oil-importingemergingeconomies—towhichheavyindustryhasshifted—havebecomemoreenergy-intensive,andsocouldbemoreseriouslysqueezed.(5)Onemorereasonnottolosesleepovertheriseinoilpricesisthat,unliketherisesinthe1970s,ithasnotoccurredagainstthebackgroundofgeneralcommodity-priceinflationandglobalexcessdemand.Asizableportionoftheworldisonlyjustemergingfromeconomicdecline.TheEconomist'scommoditypriceindexisbroadlyunchangingfromayearago.In1973commoditypricesjumpedby70%，andin1979byalmost30%.32.Itcanbeinferredfromthetextthattheretailpriceofpetrolwillgoupdramaticallyif()
【答案】 D 【考点】 推断题。 【分析】 根据题干可以定位到第三段的第三句话“In Europe, taxes account for up to four-fifths of the retail price，so even qui...
PASSAGETHREE(1)Couldthebadolddaysofeconomicdeclinebeabouttoreturn?SinceOPECagreedtosupply-cutsinMarch,thepriceofcrudeoilhasjumpedtoalmost10lastDecember.Thisnear-triplingofoilpricescallsupscarymemoriesofthe1973oilshock,whenpricesquadrupled,and1979-1980,whentheyalsoalmosttripled.Bothpreviousshocksresultedindouble-digitinflationandglobaleconomicdecline.Sowherearetheheadlineswarningofgloomanddoomthistime?(2)TheoilpricewasgivenanotherpushupthisweekwhenIraqsuspendedoilexports.Strengtheningeconomicgrowth,atthesametimeaswintergripsthenorthernhemisphere,couldpushthepricehigherstillintheshortterm.(3)Yettherearegoodreasonstoexpecttheeconomicconsequencesnowtobelessseverethaninthe1970s.Inmostcountriesthecostofcrudeoilnowaccountsforasmallershareofthepriceofpetrolthanitdidinthe1970s.InEurope,taxesaccountforuptofour-fifthsoftheretailprice,soevenquitebigchangesinthepriceofcrudehaveamoremutedeffectonpumppricesthaninthepast.(4)Richeconomiesarealsolessdependentonoilthantheywere,andsolesssensitivetoswingsintheoilprice.Energyconservation,ashifttootherfuelsandadeclineintheimportanceofheavy,energy-intensiveindustrieshavereducedoilconsumption.Software,consultancyandmobiletelephonesusefarlessoilthansteelorcarproduction.ForeachdollarofGDP(inconstantprices)richeconomiesnowusenearly50%lessoilthanin1973.TheOECDestimatesinitslatestEconomicOutlookthat,ifoilpricesaveraged13in1998,thiswouldincreasetheoilimportbillinricheconomiesbyonly0.25-0.5%ofGDP.Thatislessthanone-quarteroftheincomelossin1974or1980.Ontheotherhand,oil-importingemergingeconomies—towhichheavyindustryhasshifted—havebecomemoreenergy-intensive,andsocouldbemoreseriouslysqueezed.(5)Onemorereasonnottolosesleepovertheriseinoilpricesisthat,unliketherisesinthe1970s,ithasnotoccurredagainstthebackgroundofgeneralcommodity-priceinflationandglobalexcessdemand.Asizableportionoftheworldisonlyjustemergingfromeconomicdecline.TheEconomist'scommoditypriceindexisbroadlyunchangingfromayearago.In1973commoditypricesjumpedby70%，andin1979byalmost30%.33.TheestimatesinEconomicOutlookshowthatinrichcountries
【答案】 D 【考点】 推断题。 【分析】 根据本题的关键词“《经济展望》的估计”可以定位到“The OECD estimates in its latest Economic outlook that, if oil prices a...
PASSAGETHREE(1)Couldthebadolddaysofeconomicdeclinebeabouttoreturn?SinceOPECagreedtosupply-cutsinMarch,thepriceofcrudeoilhasjumpedtoalmost10lastDecember.Thisnear-triplingofoilpricescallsupscarymemoriesofthe1973oilshock,whenpricesquadrupled,and1979-1980,whentheyalsoalmosttripled.Bothpreviousshocksresultedindouble-digitinflationandglobaleconomicdecline.Sowherearetheheadlineswarningofgloomanddoomthistime?(2)TheoilpricewasgivenanotherpushupthisweekwhenIraqsuspendedoilexports.Strengtheningeconomicgrowth,atthesametimeaswintergripsthenorthernhemisphere,couldpushthepricehigherstillintheshortterm.(3)Yettherearegoodreasonstoexpecttheeconomicconsequencesnowtobelessseverethaninthe1970s.Inmostcountriesthecostofcrudeoilnowaccountsforasmallershareofthepriceofpetrolthanitdidinthe1970s.InEurope,taxesaccountforuptofour-fifthsoftheretailprice,soevenquitebigchangesinthepriceofcrudehaveamoremutedeffectonpumppricesthaninthepast.(4)Richeconomiesarealsolessdependentonoilthantheywere,andsolesssensitivetoswingsintheoilprice.Energyconservation,ashifttootherfuelsandadeclineintheimportanceofheavy,energy-intensiveindustrieshavereducedoilconsumption.Software,consultancyandmobiletelephonesusefarlessoilthansteelorcarproduction.ForeachdollarofGDP(inconstantprices)richeconomiesnowusenearly50%lessoilthanin1973.TheOECDestimatesinitslatestEconomicOutlookthat,ifoilpricesaveraged13in1998,thiswouldincreasetheoilimportbillinricheconomiesbyonly0.25-0.5%ofGDP.Thatislessthanone-quarteroftheincomelossin1974or1980.Ontheotherhand,oil-importingemergingeconomies—towhichheavyindustryhasshifted—havebecomemoreenergy-intensive,andsocouldbemoreseriouslysqueezed.(5)Onemorereasonnottolosesleepovertheriseinoilpricesisthat,unliketherisesinthe1970s,ithasnotoccurredagainstthebackgroundofgeneralcommodity-priceinflationandglobalexcessdemand.Asizableportionoftheworldisonlyjustemergingfromeconomicdecline.TheEconomist'scommoditypriceindexisbroadlyunchangingfromayearago.In1973commoditypricesjumpedby70%，andin1979byalmost30%.34.Wecandrawaconclusionfromthetextthat()
【答案】 A 【考点】 文章主旨题。 【分析】 本题的几个选项需要通篇理解。文章第三段指出“油价的经济影响不会那么严重”，作者指出其原因是“原油价格占汽油价格的比例不高，发达国家对石油的依赖减弱，此次涨价的背景不一样了”。文章最后一段说...